Hurricane Dorian to intensify, be ‘extremely dangerous’ in Florida

Friday, expect Dorian to intensify into a ‘major’ hurricane and make its turn west, toward Florida.

11pm UPDATE DISCOURAGING: More intense (105 mph winds), moving slower, and cone moved further south to more populated West Palm Beach area.
MSNBC said the one thing that could be worse is if it was happening tomorrow, so prepare!
Click for 11pm article and video forecast from West Palm Beach.

Hurricane Dorian made few changes on Thursday as it trekked toward the southeastern U.S. — most likely Florida — and was forecast to be an ‘extremely dangerous hurricane’ upon arrival.

Along the way, the National Hurricane Center — source of this information — reports it may issue hurricane watches for portions of the northwestern and central Bahamas on Friday.

from the National Hurricane Center

Dorian has been moving to the northwest, and that’s expected to continue through Friday — heading between an upper-level low just to the west, and a mid-level ridge to the north near Bermuda.

Then, by Friday night, the hurricane is expected to turn slightly left and head west-northwest to westward, into the weekend. That’s because the ridge is forecast to begin building westward, blocking Dorian from going further north.

That track would have Dorian moving over the Atlantic, well east of the southeastern and central Bahamas, Thursday night and Friday.

Then Saturday, it would approach the northwestern Bahamas, and Sunday, move near or over the northwest Bahamas toward the Florida peninsula.

The forecast track issued 5pm Thursday was hardly changed through the first 2-3 days, but adjusted southward and somewhat slower at 4-5 days.

Remember not to focus on the exact forecast track. Typical forecast errors at day 4 are about 155 miles, and at day 5, about 205 miles.

Maximum sustained winds at 5pm Thursday were near 85 mph, with higher gusts, but the NHC warned,

“Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian is expected to become a major hurricane on Friday, and remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through the weekend.”

That’s because the hurricane already has several well-defined bands of convection wrapping into the center, and Dorian will be moving through a favorable environment of low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures.

Expect “steady intensification” at the very least, but Dorian is predicted to remain a dangerous hurricane throughout the rest of the five-day forecast period.

The amount of rain where Dorian makes landfall in the U.S. is forecast to be 5-10 inches, with isolated areas getting 15 inches. That rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. Heavy rain is expected regardless of Dorian’s exact track.

Again, people in Florida should have their hurricane plan in place and not focus on the exact forecast track of Dorian’s center.

This page should update on its own, like ThePhillyFiles weather page, so keep returning to see changes. The National Hurricane Center often begins advisories with a list of what has changed since the previous one.

Full advisories come every six hours (5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm using Eastern Daylight Time) and intermediate advisories come every three hours in between (8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am). There will be more advisories as Dorian gets close to landfall.

Monitor the progress of Dorian and make sure to have your hurricane plan in place. Keep a week’s worth of the basic items you’ll need on hand throughout every hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30).

Keep scrolling down for tweets from the National Hurricane Center, more graphics, and the video How to use the Cone of Uncertainty.

Continuing Coverage: Hurricane Dorian

The latest on Hurricane Dorian:

from the National Hurricane Center
from the National Hurricane Center
from the National Hurricane Center
from the National Hurricane Center

VIDEO: How to use the Cone of Uncertainty

National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Specialists John Cangialosi and Robbie Berg explain how the cone of uncertainty is created, what its limitations are, and what it can be used for.


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