Humberto to head toward Bermuda as hurricane

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine already became Tropical Depression #9 and then Tropical Storm Humberto

UPDATE — Humberto became a hurricane and continues to strengthen. At 11am Monday, the storm had maximum sustained winds of 85 mph.

“Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane by Tuesday night,” according to the National Hurricane Center’s advisory.

Unfortunately, “On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is forecast to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.”

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect but,

“Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto since a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for Bermuda later (Monday) afternoon.”

Since 5am, Humberto turned from the northeast to the east-northeast, and picked up speed, from near 5 mph to 7 mph. It’s expected to continue picking up speed through early Thursday.

Meanwhile, large swells are affecting much of the southeastern U.S. coastline.

Tropical Storm Humberto got its name, but that should change yet again. Its maximum sustained winds were 70 mph at 5pm Sunday.

That’s almost hurricane-strength and according to the National Hurricane Center, Humberto is expected to become a hurricane later Sunday night.

Humberto caused rain in the Bahamas but the center avoided the islands. Also, it didn’t get as close to the Florida coast as Hurricane Dorian did, just two weeks ago.

By now, you know to focus on the entire cone, rather than just the line running through the middle, because it considers the experts’ and computer models’ growing margin of error for the center of the storm. Also keep in mind the many changes to the cone during Hurricane Dorian.

cone graphic
from the National Hurricane Center

At 5pm Sunday, it was moving to the north at about 6 mph. Then, sometime Monday, it’s expected to make “a sharp turn to the northeast,” and then head east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday.

That’s “away from the Bahamas and” … “well offshore of the southeastern coast of the United States.”

The National Hurricane Center suggests, “Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of Humberto.”

There are no more coastal watches or warnings in effect.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
from the National Hurricane Center
time of arrival graphic
from the National Hurricane Center

Further strengthening is expected, becoming a hurricane on Sunday night, and also over the next few days.

Tropical storm-force winds already extend outward up to 150 miles from Humberto’s center.

You can now find a map like this for the Philadelphia region on’s Weather Forecast for the Week page.

Humberto’s outer rain bands should give the central and northern Bahamas another 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.

Swells generated by Humberto will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the U.S. from central Florida to North Carolina over the next few days. In fact, there is a small craft advisory from south of Miami all the way to North Carolina.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

[Image of initial wind radii]
from the National Hurricane Center

Look for more updates here shortly after 11pm, to see if Humberto has become a hurricane, since graphics on this page update automatically.

Full advisories come every six hours (5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm using Eastern Daylight Time) and if there’s a threat to the U.S., then intermediate advisories would come every three hours in between (8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am).

Remember not to focus on the exact track since typical forecast errors at day 4 are about 155 miles, and at day 5, about 205 miles.

from the National Hurricane Center

As always this time of year, make sure to have your hurricane plan in place. That means keeping a week’s worth of the basic items you’d need on hand throughout every hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30).

Charity Navigator set up a Hurricane Dorian page, showing more than a dozen highly-rated organizations providing aid and relief.

Click here for information on going to volunteer in the Bahamas.

Click here for the latest from the Bahamian government.

Continuing Coverage: Tropical Storm Humberto

Hurricane Dorian


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