Philadelphia feeling all it will from Dorian, next and last major threat will be Canada

Friday was a cool, gray one — with some light rain around Philadelphia — and the center of Hurricane Dorian is still off the coast of Virginia as of 5pm. The Tropical Storm Warning from Virginia and Maryland, into Delaware, remains.

But the National Hurricane Center reports Dorian is quickly moving away from the Mid-Atlantic states — to the northeast at 24 mph — and is expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Canada.

Dorian’s maximum sustained winds weakened to 90 mph, making it a Category 1 storm. Compare that to when Dorian sat over the Bahamas for days with wind speeds twice as high!

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles.

Remember not to focus on the exact track since typical forecast errors at day 4 are about 155 miles, and at day 5, about 205 miles.

from the National Hurricane Center

Dorian is actually expected to stay headed to the northeast and speed up through Sunday.

The forecast track has its center moving to the southeast of New England, Friday night and Saturday morning, and then across Nova Scotia late Saturday or Saturday night.

Also, some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours. After that, Dorian is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds, Saturday night or Sunday, while it is near or over eastern Canada.

Again, focus on the entire cone, rather than just the line running through the middle, because it considers the experts’ and computer models’ growing margin of error for the center of the storm.

from the National Hurricane Center
The major watches and warnings in effect, as of 5pm Friday, are all from North Carolina to the north.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

  • eastern Nova Scotia from Hubbards to Avonport

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for:

  • southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards
  • Prince Edward Island
  • Magdalen Islands
  • southwestern Newfoundland from Parson’s Pond to Indian Harbour

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • the North Carolina/Virginia border to Fenwick Island, DE
  • Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point, MD, southward
  • Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, MA
  • Nantucket and Martha’s Vineyard, MA
  • east of Bar Harbor to Eastport, ME
  • Prince Edward Island
  • southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to Hubbards

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Fundy National Park to Shediac
  • Parson’s Pond to Triton
  • Indian Harbour to Stone’s Cove

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for:

  • Salter Path, NC, to the Virginia border
  • Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina

See below for links to storm information specific to your area, by state.

A Hurricane Warning means hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane Watch means hurricane conditions are possible within the area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within the area within 36 hours.

Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the area, generally within 48 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means a danger of life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline during the next 36 hours. People in these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions.

from the National Hurricane Center

Friday’s 5pm advisory says tropical storm conditions will persist for a few more hours in the warning area over the Mid-Atlantic states.

The bottom of ThePhillyFiles weather page has the Twitter feed for the Philadelphia area’s National Weather Service office.

from the National Hurricane Center

Then, it won’t take long for tropical storm conditions to be in the warning area over extreme southeastern Massachusetts, Friday night or early Saturday — and in the warning area in Maine, Saturday afternoon.

from the National Hurricane Center

Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning area, Saturday or Saturday night — and Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area, Saturday or Saturday night — regardless of whether Dorian is a hurricane or a post-tropical cyclone.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area in Canada by Saturday, and possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area, Saturday and Saturday night.

from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 2 to 4 feet above ground if the peak surge occurs during high tide somewhere from Salter Path, NC, to the Virginia border, including Pamlico and Albemarle sounds in North Carolina.

Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Storm Surge is likely in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, the southwest coast of Newfoundland, and eastern Nova Scotia.

from the National Weather Service’s Weather Prediction Center

Rain from Dorian is expected to total these amounts through Saturday:

  • extreme southeastern New England and far eastern Maine: 1 to 4 inches.
  • Nova Scotia: 3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
  • New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island: 2 to 4 inches.
  • Newfoundland: 1 to 2 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

Large swells will continue to affect much of the southeast U.S. coast from northern Florida through North Carolina, over the next couple of days.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Look below for links to information specific for your area.

Click below for state emergency management websites, followed by links to their Twitter feeds.


Advisories, Watches and Warnings by state:

(The National Weather Service page shows all alerts in effect for the state, and it’s updated every few minutes. I suggest starting by looking for a “Hurricane Local Statement” for your county.)


Maps of advisories, watches and warnings from the National Weather Service. Click each for local conditions, forecasts and other information — plus radar and satellite loops, and details on the color codes below.

Map of Forecast Area
Map of Forecast Area
Map of Forecast Area
Map of Forecast Area
Map of Forecast Area
Map of Forecast Area

Charity Navigator set up a Hurricane Dorian page, showing more than a dozen highly-rated organizations providing aid and relief.

Click here for information on going to volunteer in the Bahamas.

Click here for the latest from the Bahamian government.

Check your hurricane plan and emergency supplies kit.

You can now find a map like this for the Philadelphia region on ThePhillyFiles.com’s Weather Forecast for the Week page.

The latest on Hurricane Dorian:

from the National Hurricane Center
from the National Hurricane Center

Continuing Coverage: Hurricane Dorian


Tropical Storm Gabrielle is now forecast to become a hurricane, early next week. That’s quite an improvement from this time Thursday when the National Hurricane Center said it was “barely holding on to its status.”

Gabrielle’s maximum sustained winds are 45 mph. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles from the center.

cone graphic
from the National Hurricane Center

Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph. It’s moving to the northeast at 17 mph with some changes ahead.

Saturday, expect a turn to the west-northwest with a little slowing down. Then Sunday, there should be gradual turns, first to the northwest and then north. And Monday, to the northeast and a little faster.

[Image of probabilities of 34-kt winds]
from the National Hurricane Center

Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gabrielle is anticipated to become a hurricane by late Sunday or Monday.

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


This page should update on its own, like ThePhillyFiles weather page, so keep returning to see changes. The National Hurricane Center often begins advisories with a list of what has changed since the previous one.

Full advisories come every six hours (5am, 11am, 5pm and 11pm using Eastern Daylight Time) and intermediate advisories come every three hours in between (8am, 2pm, 8pm, 2am). There are now more advisories coming as Dorian threatens landfall in the U.S., so keep returning for graphic updates.

Monitor the progress of Dorian and make sure to have your hurricane plan in place. That means keeping a week’s worth of the basic items you’d need on hand throughout every hurricane season (June 1 through Nov. 30).

Keep scrolling down for tweets and now podcasts from the National Hurricane Center, plus more graphics.


Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale

The scale estimates potential property damage based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are only “considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage. Category 1 and 2 storms are still dangerous, however, and require preventative measures.”

CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE: Maximum sustained winds of 74-95 mph. Very dangerous winds will produce some damage. Well-constructed frame homes could have damage to roof, shingles, vinyl siding and gutters. Large branches of trees will snap and shallowly rooted trees may be toppled. Extensive damage to power lines and poles likely will result in power outages that could last a few to several days.

CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE: Maximum sustained winds of 96-110 mph. Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage. Well-constructed frame homes could sustain major roof and siding damage. Many shallowly rooted trees will be snapped or uprooted and block numerous roads. Near-total power loss is expected with outages that could last from several days to weeks.

CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE: Marks a “major” hurricane. Maximum sustained winds of 111-129 mph. Devastating damage will occur. Well-built framed homes may incur major damage or removal of roof decking and gable ends. Many trees will be snapped or uprooted, blocking numerous roads. Electricity and water will be unavailable for several days to weeks after the storm passes.

CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE: Maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph. Catastrophic damage will occur. Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE: The worst level possible. Maximum sustained winds of 157+ mph. Catastrophic damage will occur. A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.


The National Hurricane Center is now providing audio briefings (podcasts) when the media pool is activated by the NHC Public Affairs Officer. That usually happens when a Hurricane Watch is initiated for part of the U.S. coastline. The audio briefings will provide the latest information regarding the hurricane threat and its expected impacts.


VIDEO: How to use the Cone of Uncertainty
National Hurricane Center (NHC) Hurricane Specialists John Cangialosi and Robbie Berg explain how the cone of uncertainty is created, what its limitations are, and what it can be used for.

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